The Boardroom

Only 16 matches in this season will not tell us whether a team is “good” or “bad” in absolute terms. What it 

 tell us is how a team is trying to solve the problem of scoring goals. Patterns emerge long before outcomes stabilize.

This piece looks at how AC Milan have scored their goals so far in the 2025–26 season. Not who scored the most, or which game felt dominant, but 

how goals are created, from where, and under what conditions

Think of this as a diagnostic scan, not a verdict.

The analysis covers Milan’s first 16 competitive matches of the 2025–26 season and includes 

Each goal is treated as a single observation and enriched with contextual attributes:

origin of the assist (or pre-assist where available)

goal type (open play, transition, set piece, press regain, penalty)

Goals are scarce events. That scarcity is precisely why they are valuable analytically. Each one carries information about structure, intention, and execution.

There are limitations. Sample size is small. Opponent quality varies. Game state matters. The goal here is not certainty, but 

1. Goals by Minute Bands: The Peak & The Blitz

We are not a team that blitzes opponents in the first 10 minutes. We are a team that drowns them in the last 30.

 We score nearly a quarter of our goals right before the whistle (like Pulisic vs Verona at 45+1'). This demoralizes opponents just as they think they've survived the half.

 We score our highest volume of goals (7) immediately after the break. Allegri is clearly adjusting the pressing triggers in the locker room, catching teams cold before they settle back in.

 If you lose focus for 15 minutes around halftime against Milan, the game is over.

The Finishers & Creators: Who is Driving the Machine?

, Milan’s output splits into a really clean 

Pulisic still leads the scoring charts, with 

Top Assister: It’s a tie (2 assists each)

This is where the “burden is shifting” point gets real: the creative load is spread across 

Modrić, Saelemaekers, Tomori, Ricci, Nkunku, Pulisic, Rabiot

That kind of flat assist leaderboard usually means you are not living on one pipeline. You are getting chance creation from multiple zones: wingback deliveries, central progression, and second-phase actions.

 are a tactical signal, not trivia. They usually come from one of three “chaos” buckets:

 (shot saved or hits the woodwork, scorer reacts first)

 (carry, separation, or press-win then finish)

Here are 

AC Milan’s 5 non-penalty, unassisted goals

Serie A 2025-26 so far (16 matches played)

, based on match sheets where the goal is explicitly tagged 

Interpretation & tactical read (the “so what?”)

Early-season Milan often looked like a team where 

. Now the shape of the numbers suggests something healthier:

Scoring is still led by one finisher (Pulisic)

 (7-way tie for assists), which usually means opponents cannot kill Milan by deleting a single lane.

, so output is not being inflated by spot-kicks. 

 hints that Milan are generating goals from 

second phases and individual problem-solving

Goal Types Breakdown (Serie A, 2025–26)

Data source: WhoScored (AC Milan, league matches only)

Set Pieces (corners & free kicks, excl. penalties):

By volume, AC Milan still score primarily through 

, which accounts for just under two-thirds of their league goals. This places Milan comfortably within the norm for possession-capable teams, but the more revealing signal lies in the remaining third.

: set pieces, penalties, and counterattacks. This is not statistical noise. It is structural intent.

 an “endless circulation” side that relies solely on sustained territorial dominance to break opponents down. Instead, their attacking profile shows a clear 

set pieces are consistently monetized rather than treated as low-yield moments

penalties are earned at a non-trivial rate

counterattacking goals, while limited in volume, appear at decisive moments

The result is an attack built less on aesthetic control and more on 

This balance between open-play creation and dead-ball efficiency points to a 

. Milan do not need to dominate every phase of play to score. They are capable of converting structure, chaos, and restarts into goals.

That flexibility is not accidental. It is a design choice.

The "Front-Runner" Profile: Goals by Game State

. Once Milan goes 1-0 up, the opponent is forced to open up, and that is when 

 feast on the transition spaces. 15 goals scored while leading proves that Allegri’s strategy works: get the lead, sit back in a mid-block, and kill them on the break. The concern? Only 4 goals while trailing suggests we struggle to break down teams who score first and park the bus.

 1.2 Goals per game (Defensive / Conservative)

We bully the weak. Against bottom-tier sides (like Verona), we average over 2.5 goals. This consistency against "smaller" teams is what wins league titles. Against the Top 6, Allegri reverted to a more conservative, risk-averse shape, happy to take a 1-0 or 1-1. This variance is intentional: maximize points against the bottom 14, minimize losses against the top 5.

After 16 matches, the identity is clear. We are not a "Total Football" team. We are a 

The 3-0 win against Verona wasn't just a good night; it was the perfect execution of the season's blueprint.

How AC Milan Score in 2025–26: Patterns After 16 Matches

AC Milan's January transfer window revolves around a single question: Does a team built on speed, width, and transition need a traditional No. 9?

The answer, according to Massimiliano Allegri's tactical blueprint, is yes, but not for the reasons most fans think.

This isn't about goals. It's about structural relief. And Niclas Füllkrug, 

West Ham's 31-year-old German international

, represents the most polarizing test case in modern Serie A.

The data presents two conflicting analytical narratives:

 Füllkrug is a monster in the air. Last season, he won nearly 

. He is the "Bypass" button Milan has been missing; the guy who wins the long ball so the rest of the team can finally stop defending and start breathing.

 The trade-off is real. Füllkrug isn’t a "marathon" striker. He ranks in the 

, meaning he won’t be sprinting to press the keeper. If Milan wants a high-energy "hunting" system, he’s a massive roadblock.

So which narrative wins? Let's follow the data, not the sentiment.


The Füllkrug Profile: What the Numbers Actually Say

To understand why Allegri wants a 31-year-old from West Ham, you have to look past the goals. You have to look at his 

Notice the extreme difference in shape between Füllkrug (Pink) and Milan’s current striker Giménez (Yellow). Giménez dominates the box; Füllkrug dominates the air.

The Visual Evidence: A Clash of Identities

The radar chart above isn't just data; it’s a map of two different sports.

. His shape pulls heavily to the right. He is elite at getting touches in the box (

), but he offers almost zero vertical outlet.

. His shape stretches aggressively to the bottom-left. He is the only player in this comparison who functions as a true "Target Hub," dominating the aerial and long-pass metrics.

According to the 2025/26 volume metrics comparison (see table below), Füllkrug is a 

 in the areas Milan is currently weakest.

 in vertical dominance. When Maignan kicks long, Füllkrug actually makes it a 50/50 contest; Giménez makes it a turnover.

, the highest among Serie A’s elite targets. He isn't just a striker; he is a magnet for the "panic ball." When the midfield is suffocating, he provides the exit route that Lukaku (6.20) and Vlahović (5.10) do not.

The trade-off for this structural dominance is clear in the data. Füllkrug is a specialist, not a multi-tool.

. Why? Because he spends half the game fighting center-backs at the halfway line to win the initial ball.

 While he wins the ball, he doesn't run with it. Ranking in the 

, Füllkrug is a "Wall", he bounces the ball to Leão or Pulisic rather than turning and sprinting.

Füllkrug’s heatmap (implied by his lower box touches) shows a 

. In a Fonseca system, this is a disaster because the striker needs to press. In an 

, this is the "Key." Allegri doesn't want his striker chasing fullbacks; he wants him pinned centrally to occupy two defenders, leaving the half-spaces wide open for 

 Giménez is the better finisher, but Füllkrug is the only one playing the position Allegri actually needs.


The Case for Füllkrug: When Data Supports the Move

For AC Milan, the potential addition of Niclas Füllkrug presents a fascinating case study. Could he be the answer to their pressing challenges, or would his limitations expose the team's vulnerabilities? Here, we explore both sides of this debate.

 Adding Füllkrug provides Milan with a "tactical timeout" when facing deep defensive blocks.

, Füllkrug operates in a different tactical weight class than Milan's current options. While Tammy Abraham receives roughly 

 long passes per 90 minutes, Füllkrug is the target for a massive 

This isn't just a number; it's a structural revolution. That difference means Füllkrug provides 

 where Maignan can bypass the press entirely.

Imagine this: Every time Füllkrug controls one of those 8 long balls, Milan’s defensive line gets to sprint 

 without playing a single risky pass. It’s a "Tactical Reset" that happens four times more often than it does with Abraham. That is roughly 

 of game time where Milan isn't pinned in their own box.

Historical Precedent: The Dortmund Blueprint

The proof is in the Champions League run. During Borussia Dortmund’s 2023/24 road to the final, Füllkrug didn't just score; he carried the team up the pitch. In the Champions League specifically, he won an elite 

, essentially guaranteeing his defenders a "get out of jail free" card almost four times every match.

 Against Serie A’s deep defensive teams, Füllkrug creates vertical overloads that force compact formations to break.

confirms that Füllkrug’s primary function is "Pinning." By occupying two center-backs physically, he creates a 

 This drop creates crucial pockets of space between the opposition midfield and defense.

 In the 2023/24 season, Füllkrug averaged 

. Crucially, most of these weren't from dribbles, but from 

winning the initial ball and setting up a teammate (like Brandt/Malen, or now Pulisic) for a shot.

Case Study: Füllkrug vs. High Pressing Teams 

When facing aggressive high-lines (similar to Atalanta or Inter), Füllkrug transforms from a scorer to a "Wall." Looking at his performance against 

 in 2023/24, the data shows his value as an outlet:

 (Top 30% of forwards). Against high-pressing teams, these are "Gold" opportunity, cheap free kicks that break the opponent's rhythm and allow Milan to push up.

 Against PSG (a relentless pressing team), Füllkrug didn't just win headers; he acted as a pivot, receiving 

. He is the "Safety Valve" Maignan needs when the short option is cut off.

The Case AGAINST Füllkrug: When Data Contradicts the Move

 Füllkrug’s lack of pressing and mobility undermines Milan’s transition identity.

 FBref's advanced metrics confirm a stark defensive disparity. Füllkrug ranks in the 

bottom 10th percentile for defensive actions

, averaging significantly fewer ball regains than Milan’s current forward line. This discrepancy creates a numerical disadvantage when attempting to squeeze the pitch.

 Milan’s most lethal attacks often occur within 10 seconds of winning possession. However, 

Füllkrug’s recorded top speed this season is just 28.6 km/h

 than Rafael Leão’s 36.5 km/h. In a high-speed break, Füllkrug becomes a spectator rather than a participant.

Füllkrug's defensive actions to those of Milan's forwards, illustrating the "passive zone" he operates in.

FBref Scouting Report - European Big 5 Leagues (2024-2026)

 represents the "Passive Anchor." His total of 

 per 90 is statistically negligible compared to a high-intensity worker like Saelemaekers. He is a "statue" in the press, which confirms the 

Counterargument 2: The Age & Wages Question

 Füllkrug (31 years old, high wages) represents a short-term solution that contradicts Milan's rebuilding philosophy.

. West Ham's asking price ranges between 

, potentially keeping him at the club until age 33-34.

While Füllkrug offers immediate structural relief, he represents a "sunk cost" with zero salvage value. To illustrate the alternative path, I have selected four players, ranging from established elite targets to "Moneyball" scouting gems, who fit the 

: low entry age, high physical ceiling, and massive resale potential. 

The following table compares our primary target with four younger alternatives currently on the market or in the squad. Note how the "Resale Value" inversely correlates with age, highlighting the financial risk of the Füllkrug move.

The "Market Opportunity": Dušan Vlahović

 Under Allegri at Juventus, Vlahović was a vertical reference point. With his contract winding down in 2026, he is the "Gold Standard" alternative. He offers 

 but with 10 years more "tread on the tires." He is a capital investment, whereas Füllkrug is a rental expense.

 A lifelong Milan fan currently impressing at Club Brugge/Hannover roots, Tresoldi is the type of profile CEO Giorgio Furlani favors. He matches the 

 (3.2 pressures) that Füllkrug lacks, though he would require a "seasoning" period before leading the line at San Siro.

The Verdict: Short-term Fix vs. Long-term Health

 It solves Allegri's immediate suffocation problem but leaves the club with an aging, high-wage asset that will be impossible to sell in 24 months.

Counterargument 3: The System Adaptation Risk

 Building around Füllkrug forces Milan to accommodate a "tactical crutch," potentially compromising their long-term identity for a short-term fix.

The "Historical Warning": Manchester United & Wout Weghorst (2023)

In January 2023, Manchester United signed Wout Weghorst to solve a "structural gap" following the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo. Like Füllkrug, Weghorst was an aerially dominant reference point (

However, the empirical evidence from that six-month period serves as a grave warning for Milan:

17 Premier League matches without scoring a single goal

. While he provided "structural relief," he fundamentally lacked the clinical edge required at an elite club.

 United's attack became predictable. Despite his hold-up play, Weghorst significantly 

, finishing his loan with just 2 goals across 31 appearances in all competitions.

 Because Weghorst could not lead a high-speed break, United’s "Build-up tempo" slowed. Defenders began to bypass the midfield entirely to hit the "Big Man," leading to 

the exact same risk Milan faces with Allegri’s "Bypass Blueprint."

 Füllkrug is the medicine for Milan’s current headache, but the side effects might just be worse than the disease.

Scenario A: Füllkrug as a "Tactical Wild Card" (Recommended)

 15-20 minutes per game as a late-game change of pace.

 Against low blocks or when protecting leads.

 Provides a bypass option without compromising Milan's primary identity.

Scenario B: Füllkrug as a Starter (High Risk, High Reward)

 First-choice striker in a 4-4-2 diamond system.

Füllkrug, Milan, and the No. 9 in Question: What the Data Actually Says

There is an unwritten rule that Massimiliano Allegri has turned into a career-defining dogma: 

 (The game is simple, but it isn't easy). While modern managers obsess over 2-3-5 rotations and inverted fullbacks, Allegri's success has always relied on a singular, ancient structural requirement, called 

. He demands a striker who does not play for himself, but for the geometry of the team. From Ibrahimović to Mandžukić, and now to Füllkrug, the lineage is unbroken.

There's a reason the No. 9 at Milan always feels heavier than the shirt itself. It isn't just goals. It's a memory. Van Basten's beauty, Inzaghi's obsession, Zlatan's inevitability, Giroud's calm. Every generation adds another layer of expectation until the number stops being a position and becomes a test of identity.

in an Allegri-style team, the No. 9 is often less "hero" and more system component

. Not a crown. A lever. A release valve. A way to turn pressure into territory, and territory into a moment. Allegri's best sides have been built to win different kinds of games rather than insisting on one pure ideology. That mindset fundamentally changes what "great striker play" even looks like. Sometimes it's not about domination, it's about survival with purpose.

So if you want to understand Allegri's No. 9, don't start with highlights. Start with a question: 

when the game gets messy, who helps the team breathe?

The Philosophical Foundation: "È Molto Semplice"

The answer begins in Allegri’s 2019 publication, 

), where he outlines his "32 Rules for Football." Allegri argues that tactical complexity is often a mask for poor fundamental understanding. His central thesis emphasizes "knowing your players' characteristics" above rigid systems, which leads directly to his requirement for a 

—a player capable of functioning as a structural lighthouse when the midfield is submerged.

This isn't anti-football; it is intelligent pragmatism. According to tactical analysis regarding 

 necessitates a "long-ball outlet" to prevent fatigue. Without this escape valve, the team is forced to play through sustained high pressure, dramatically increasing the 

 in the defensive third, exactly where turnovers are most lethal.

 The evidence is found in the data of the 2011/12 Scudetto-fighting campaign. While critics remember "long balls," the data reveals 

 They used Zlatan Ibrahimović as a singular bypass mechanism. In that season, Ibrahimović was directly involved in 

 (28 goals, 8 assists)—the highest individual dependency rate of any player in Europe’s top five leagues.

 verticality. Zlatan’s ability to kill high passes allowed him to generate 

 (Serie A leader), proving that the "Bypass" wasn't a desperation clearance. It was the team's primary playmaker.

We don't need to guess if Füllkrug fits. The data shows he is a near-perfect clone of Allegri’s most successful Scudetto-winning strikers.

 Füllkrug leads all contemporary strikers in aerial duels won per 90 (3.813.813.81) while maintaining elite holdup efficiency (71.5%71.5\%71.5%). This mirrors Zlatan's 2010-11 role, not as the primary scorer, but as the 

 that collapses defenses and creates space for runners.

The Milan Paradox: Archetype vs. Function

This brings us to Milan's present challenge, and it's a significant one.

Milan currently possesses elite "Runners" but lacks the "Anchor" to release them. This creates a 

Rafael Leão, Christian Pulisic, Alexis Saelemaekers, and Christopher Nkunku, 

space occupiers, runners, or second strikers

. These are not players who want to receive the ball with their back to goal. They want to attack space, exploit gaps, and arrive late into danger zones. Meanwhile, 

, while talented, is also not the Allegri archetype, he's more of a penalty-box poacher than a physical reference point.

. Allegri's system demands a player who can act as the anchor, but Milan's attacking personnel are designed to function 

 space through physical presence. It's like having a tactical jigsaw puzzle where the central piece is the wrong shape.

Why do Leão and Pulisic struggle in tight games? Because they are being asked to create space rather than exploit it.


The uncomfortable reality is that Milan's attacking cast—Leão's explosiveness, Pulisic's off-ball movement, Nkunku's versatility are all predicated on having someone ahead of them who can do the dirty work. They need a striker who can win duels in the air, hold up play under pressure, and allow them to arrive late into the spaces created by that gravitational pull.

Without that reference point, even brilliant players can look disconnected. The system collapses into a collection of talented individuals rather than a cohesive structure. 

Conclusion: Building to Support, Not Just to Acquire

"Have we built a Milan that can support any No. 9?"

If the answer is yes, then talent shines. If the answer is no, then even good strikers look average, and the shirt becomes an impossible burden.

Allegri's philosophy has always been simple: know your players' characteristics, and build a system that amplifies their strengths while covering their weaknesses. The "Bypass Blueprint" isn't about playing long balls because you lack quality, it's about having the 

 to escape pressure when opponents force you into difficult situations.

Posts in The Boardroom

How AC Milan Score in 2025–26: Patterns After 16 Matches

Füllkrug, Milan, and the No. 9 in Question: What the Data Actually Says

Allegri's No. 9 and the Art of Escaping Pressure